Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.96 – 130.35

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±12.8

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 52.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1721Tidal Force

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 67.71Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 32.62Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±12.4

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 32.62Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 30.02Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 67.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2648, 1721, 4034

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2648, 1721, 4034

Auto

24.3 17%

Teleop

84.8 60%

Endgame

31.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6762, 6324, 9443

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6762, 6324, 9443

Auto

19.9 18%

Teleop

63.5 57%

Endgame

27.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153pts

Blue projected score130.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.6
Score range: 100–183
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.2Season APEX354.1

24.3Auto19.9

84.8Teleop63.5

31.1Endgame27.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	34
teleop	72	73
endgame	37	38
foul	0	5
total	124	150

Result

Final score

124 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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