Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.37 – 155.22

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.4 ±11.2

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 99.93Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 36.01Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 47.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.7 ±11.7

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 66.08Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 41.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 47.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 238, 7314, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 238, 7314, 4925

Auto

36.5 21%

Teleop

93.0 52%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4041, 2712, 1512

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 2712, 1512

Auto

18.1 12%

Teleop

83.2 55%

Endgame

50.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.4pts

Blue projected score155.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.2
Score range: 124–214
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.4Season APEX306.7

36.5Auto18.1

93Teleop83.2

48.4Endgame50.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	10
teleop	124	9
endgame	53	16
foul	0	15
total	242	50

Result

Final score

242 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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