Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.1 – 338.87

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

323 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±9.3

1512The Big Red

Season APEX 135.2Event APEX 36.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 217.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 157.25Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 155.19Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 29.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 154.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1512, 238, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1512, 238, 1058

Auto

85.2 22%

Teleop

205.4 54%

Endgame

88.6 23%

Strengths

· 238 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 133, 3597, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 133, 3597, 6324

Auto

66.8 20%

Teleop

187.6 58%

Endgame

71.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score411.1pts

Blue projected score338.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 305–445
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 190.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.8Season APEX544.3

85.2Auto66.8

205.4Teleop187.6

88.6Endgame71.7

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	92
teleop	183	188
endgame	62	62
foul	5	10
total	323	352

Result

Final score

323 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Match videos

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