Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.29 – 144.95

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 27.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 79.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 60.6Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.2 ±11

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 52.27Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 34.47Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 58.21Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 501, 8724, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 8724, 4905

Auto

50.0 30%

Teleop

80.7 49%

Endgame

34.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 811, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

145 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 811, 319

Auto

31.4 22%

Teleop

77.4 55%

Endgame

31.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.3pts

Blue projected score145pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.3
Score range: 118–195
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX347.2

50Auto31.4

80.7Teleop77.4

34Endgame31.8

21Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	42
teleop	61	96
endgame	9	55
foul	5	5
total	118	198

Result

Final score

118 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 pts

Match videos

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