Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.73 – 152.81

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.1 ±9.8

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 14.82Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 130.61Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 235.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 22.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 75.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 55.3Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11157, 4909, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11157, 4909, 3467

Auto

65.4 18%

Teleop

223.2 60%

Endgame

85.0 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 8724, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 8724, 4905

Auto

47.5 32%

Teleop

74.7 50%

Endgame

26.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score380.7pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.9
Score range: 126–408
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.1Season APEX540.5

65.4Auto47.5

223.2Teleop74.7

85Endgame26.8

24Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	63
teleop	260	117
endgame	122	68
foul	5	5
total	464	253

Result

Final score

464 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 91.7 pts

Match videos

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