Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.47 – 133.47

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326 ±11

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 47.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 27.62Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 73.08Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.2 ±11

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 48.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 30.76Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 54.34Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7674, 126, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7674, 126, 467

Auto

24.8 17%

Teleop

75.0 51%

Endgame

46.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 811, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 811, 319

Auto

30.3 23%

Teleop

70.2 54%

Endgame

30.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.5pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15
Score range: 106–175
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326Season APEX347.2

24.8Auto30.3

75Teleop70.2

46.2Endgame30.5

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	39
teleop	101	117
endgame	45	39
foul	5	15
total	185	210

Result

Final score

185 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 56.5 pts

Match videos

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