Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.79 – 104.6

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.4 ±11.6

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 61.08Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 25.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 30.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.1 ±11

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 26.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 36.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 41.65Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1729, 138, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 138, 2342

Auto

11.5 10%

Teleop

72.4 61%

Endgame

34.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9096, 509, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 509, 3323

Auto

10.7 10%

Teleop

66.2 62%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 78–145
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.4Season APEX262.1

11.5Auto10.7

72.4Teleop66.2

34.8Endgame29.7

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	150	48
endgame	25	34
foul	30	5
total	230	109

Result

Final score

230 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Match videos

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