Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.24 – 128.93

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±8.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 31.43Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 92.31Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 75.5Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.2 ±11

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 46.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 29.19Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 53.4Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 166, 131

Auto

29.2 15%

Teleop

105.6 54%

Endgame

60.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 811, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 811, 319

Auto

28.3 22%

Teleop

67.8 53%

Endgame

31.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.2pts

Blue projected score128.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 103–225
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655Season APEX347.2

29.2Auto28.3

105.6Teleop67.8

60.2Endgame31.8

2Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	40
teleop	134	82
endgame	74	25
foul	25	10
total	264	157

Result

Final score

264 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Match videos

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