Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.61 – 144.5

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±10.5

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 122.98Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 14.96Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 122.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326 ±11

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 46.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 26.63Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 71.64Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 9055, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 9055, 1073

Auto

34.7 14%

Teleop

159.3 62%

Endgame

62.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7674, 126, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7674, 126, 467

Auto

22.3 15%

Teleop

80.1 55%

Endgame

43.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score260.6pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.1
Score range: 119–287
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX326

34.7Auto22.3

159.3Teleop80.1

62.2Endgame43.3

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	37
teleop	209	57
endgame	100	58
foul	5	20
total	360	172

Result

Final score

360 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Match videos

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