Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.24 – 106.15

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 68.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 16.21Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 49.6Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.1 ±11

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 26.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 37.01Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 42.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8724, 501, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8724, 501, 4905

Auto

43.6 34%

Teleop

63.3 49%

Endgame

21.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9096, 509, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 509, 3323

Auto

8.4 8%

Teleop

67.0 62%

Endgame

32.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score106.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 80–160
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX262.1

43.6Auto8.4

63.3Teleop67

21.5Endgame32.4

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	25
teleop	127	72
endgame	52	26
foul	0	0
total	247	123

Result

Final score

247 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Match videos

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