Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.39 – 123.04

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.4 ±9

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 10.83Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 130.67Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 234.89Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.4 ±11.6

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 62.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 28.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 32.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 4909, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 4909, 3467

Auto

61.2 17%

Teleop

222.0 60%

Endgame

86.0 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1729, 138, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 138, 2342

Auto

12.9 10%

Teleop

72.9 59%

Endgame

37.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score376.4pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 253.3
Score range: 97–402
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.4Season APEX325.4

61.2Auto12.9

222Teleop72.9

86Endgame37.5

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	9
teleop	217	77
endgame	107	29
foul	20	0
total	415	115

Result

Final score

415 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Match videos

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