Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.82 – 214.82

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±10.5

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 22.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 128.58Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 128.19Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±8.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 37.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 97.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 80.36Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9055, 95, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 95, 1073

Auto

39.1 14%

Teleop

162.7 60%

Endgame

68.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 166, 131

Auto

24.1 12%

Teleop

118.2 58%

Endgame

62.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.8pts

Blue projected score214.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64
Score range: 187–307
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 156.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX655

39.1Auto24.1

162.7Teleop118.2

68.5Endgame62.6

10Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	25
teleop	175	98
endgame	74	63
foul	15	5
total	324	191

Result

Final score

324 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Match videos

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