Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.99 – 152.04

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±8.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 33.3Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 93.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 76.3Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.2 ±11

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 54.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 37.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 60.81Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

203 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 166, 131

Auto

24.2 12%

Teleop

111.6 58%

Endgame

58.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 58, 811, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 811, 319

Auto

32.7 22%

Teleop

80.4 54%

Endgame

34.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203pts

Blue projected score152pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 124–231
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655Season APEX347.2

24.2Auto32.7

111.6Teleop80.4

58Endgame34.7

12Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	32
teleop	162	119
endgame	94	35
foul	15	15
total	294	201

Result

Final score

294 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 70 pts

Match videos

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