Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.72 – 135.01

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±8.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 34.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 94.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 77.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.4 ±11.6

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 36.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 30.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 67.16Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 166, 131

Auto

25.6 13%

Teleop

116.1 59%

Endgame

54.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2342, 138, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2342, 138, 1729

Auto

13.6 10%

Teleop

84.2 64%

Endgame

33.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.7pts

Blue projected score135pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 108–234
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655Season APEX325.4

25.6Auto13.6

116.1Teleop84.2

54.1Endgame33.5

7Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	24
teleop	84	74
endgame	83	20
foul	0	0
total	185	118

Result

Final score

185 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Match videos

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