Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.74 – 77.05

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±10.5

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 44.32Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 68.84Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 5.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±12.1

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 26.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 7.01Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 44Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4905, 348, 138

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4905, 348, 138

Auto

23.0 19%

Teleop

64.8 54%

Endgame

31.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1277, 126, 811

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 126, 811

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

33.9 47%

Endgame

26.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.7pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 54–142
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478Season APEX224.2

23Auto11.3

64.8Teleop33.9

31.1Endgame26.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	32	26
endgame	15	22
foul	0	0
total	70	64

Result

Final score

70 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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