Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.17 – 158.57

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±11.7

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 17.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 53.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 16.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.5 ±10.5

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 28.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 87.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 42.86Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11157, 1729, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11157, 1729, 58

Auto

15.5 18%

Teleop

53.3 60%

Endgame

19.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 9096, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 9096, 467

Auto

32.6 21%

Teleop

81.2 52%

Endgame

42.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score158.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.4
Score range: 65–181
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX387.5

15.5Auto32.6

53.3Teleop81.2

19.4Endgame42

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	37
teleop	113	77
endgame	32	31
foul	0	0
total	161	145

Result

Final score

161 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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