Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.57 – 72

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 69.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.6 ±11.7

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 40.86Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 41.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 46.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±11

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 13.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 12Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 46.57Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4925, 319, 7314

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 319, 7314

Auto

18.0 14%

Teleop

79.1 63%

Endgame

28.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9055, 11175, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 11175, 3323

Auto

17.4 24%

Teleop

45.2 63%

Endgame

9.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score72pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.6
Score range: 47–154
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 62 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.6Season APEX297.9

18Auto17.4

79.1Teleop45.2

28.6Endgame9.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	0
teleop	0	47
endgame	0	0
foul	10	0
total	15	47

Result

Final score

15 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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