Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.24 – 103

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±12.4

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 94.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -4.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 18.12Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±12.2

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 37.47Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 28.15Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 37.38Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 1247, 11157

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 1247, 11157

Auto

23.5 22%

Teleop

56.4 52%

Endgame

28.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 509, 126, 7314

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 126, 7314

Auto

4.6 4%

Teleop

64.9 62%

Endgame

34.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.2
Score range: 77–133
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.5Season APEX257.3

23.5Auto4.6

56.4Teleop64.9

28.4Endgame34.4

13Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	11
teleop	71	69
endgame	15	25
foul	0	0
total	124	105

Result

Final score

124 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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