Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.72 – 92.81

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.7 ±9.8

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 120.67Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 4.2Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 72.85Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.3 ±11.7

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 3.14Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 46.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 43.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 11175, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 11175, 131

Auto

35.3 19%

Teleop

108.2 58%

Endgame

44.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10937, 4905, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 4905, 58

Auto

22.5 25%

Teleop

55.5 62%

Endgame

11.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.7pts

Blue projected score92.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.9
Score range: 68–223
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.7Season APEX398.3

35.3Auto22.5

108.2Teleop55.5

44.4Endgame11.2

55Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	30
teleop	174	83
endgame	80	46
foul	0	0
total	278	159

Result

Final score

278 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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