Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.09 – 85.87

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.6 ±11.7

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 37.17Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 38.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 117.74Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±11

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 3.48Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 68.62Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 13.77Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7314, 58, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7314, 58, 95

Auto

29.8 16%

Teleop

119.4 63%

Endgame

39.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11175, 1729, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 1729, 1277

Auto

13.9 17%

Teleop

51.3 63%

Endgame

16.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.1pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.2
Score range: 61–218
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.6Season APEX299.4

29.8Auto13.9

119.4Teleop51.3

39.9Endgame16.8

9Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	21
teleop	124	37
endgame	65	19
foul	5	10
total	239	87

Result

Final score

239 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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