Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.78 – 160.99

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.6 ±8.8

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 139.09Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 36.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 130.35Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.2 ±11.7

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -7.25Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 38.69Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 129.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 348, 95

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 348, 95

Auto

48.5 17%

Teleop

163.4 56%

Endgame

81.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1247, 811, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1247, 811, 1073

Auto

20.9 13%

Teleop

93.4 59%

Endgame

44.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score161pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 132–335
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.6Season APEX325.2

48.5Auto20.9

163.4Teleop93.4

81.5Endgame44.1

16Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	6
teleop	159	82
endgame	63	58
foul	5	0
total	267	146

Result

Final score

267 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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