Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.66 – 179.68

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±11.2

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 40.81Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -12.51Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 10.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.9 ±11.7

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 121.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 21.77Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 36.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 6690, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 6690, 4925

Auto

5.4 17%

Teleop

16.3 51%

Endgame

10.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1073, 11157, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1073, 11157, 2342

Auto

27.5 16%

Teleop

94.6 53%

Endgame

54.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.7pts

Blue projected score179.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141
Score range: 14–205
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311Season APEX405.9

5.4Auto27.5

16.3Teleop94.6

10Endgame54.9

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	22	117
endgame	16	6
foul	0	0
total	60	134

Result

Final score

60 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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