Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.13 – 238.48

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±9.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 12.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 63.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 53.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±8.8

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 69.14Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 127.96Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 41.38Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 501, 8724, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 8724, 7674

Auto

32.9 27%

Teleop

58.6 47%

Endgame

32.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 4909, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 4909, 4905

Auto

42.8 19%

Teleop

127.2 55%

Endgame

60.7 26%

Strengths

· 4909 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.1pts

Blue projected score238.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.3
Score range: 104–263
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX665.5

32.9Auto42.8

58.6Teleop127.2

32.3Endgame60.7

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	45
teleop	80	169
endgame	43	69
foul	5	15
total	171	298

Result

Final score

171 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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