Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.56 – 169.58

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.1 ±12.2

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 33.04Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 46.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 18.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±11

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 19.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 114.34Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 35.64Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 126, 3323, 8421

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 126, 3323, 8421

Auto

17.0 18%

Teleop

63.7 67%

Endgame

14.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 811, 95, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 811, 95, 509

Auto

12.9 8%

Teleop

102.7 61%

Endgame

53.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.6pts

Blue projected score169.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72
Score range: 73–195
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.1Season APEX325.1

17Auto12.9

63.7Teleop102.7

14.4Endgame53.5

10Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	32
teleop	60	126
endgame	33	58
foul	0	0
total	106	216

Result

Final score

106 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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