Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.47 – 69.25

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±12.2

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 11.41Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 81.55Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX -12.49Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±12.8

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 37.42Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 25.17Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 6.66Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11269, 467, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11269, 467, 10138

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

42.4 52%

Endgame

21.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7314, 11157, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7314, 11157, 11175

Auto

15.0 24%

Teleop

30.9 49%

Endgame

17.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 44–105
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.1Season APEX213.7

17.6Auto15

42.4Teleop30.9

21Endgame17.1

27Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	55	26
endgame	18	15
foul	0	0
total	90	60

Result

Final score

90 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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