Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.76 – 106.29

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±12.2

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 23.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 41.17Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX -4.28Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.2 ±10.5

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 14.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 73.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 18.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9096, 4905, 1247

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 4905, 1247

Auto

15.8 25%

Teleop

35.4 57%

Endgame

10.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 131, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 131, 1277

Auto

7.5 8%

Teleop

46.2 47%

Endgame

43.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.5
Score range: 36–131
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX458.2

15.8Auto7.5

35.4Teleop46.2

10.9Endgame43.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	24
teleop	33	38
endgame	25	3
foul	5	5
total	78	70

Result

Final score

78 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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