Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.67 – 117.89

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.5 ±11

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 52.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 16.44Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 6.25Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±12.2

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 86.89Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX 2.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 28.2Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7674, 811, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7674, 811, 11175

Auto

12.4 17%

Teleop

34.4 48%

Endgame

25.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 467, 1247, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 467, 1247, 1277

Auto

13.7 12%

Teleop

62.9 53%

Endgame

42.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.7pts

Blue projected score117.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 51–143
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.5Season APEX196.9

12.4Auto13.7

34.4Teleop62.9

25.3Endgame42.1

75Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	17
teleop	48	28
endgame	35	10
foul	0	5
total	92	60

Result

Final score

92 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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