Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.23 – 49.39

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.4 ±9.5

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 31.92Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 70.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 112.39Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±11.6

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 10.86Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 17.59Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 20.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 166, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2342, 166, 4909

Auto

38.0 18%

Teleop

119.7 56%

Endgame

55.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4925, 138, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4925, 138, 9096

Auto

5.7 13%

Teleop

23.2 53%

Endgame

14.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.2pts

Blue projected score49.4pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.8
Score range: 25–239
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.4Season APEX245.4

38Auto5.7

119.7Teleop23.2

55.1Endgame14.8

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	13
teleop	147	51
endgame	89	25
foul	0	0
total	274	89

Result

Final score

274 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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