Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.55 – 129.54

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±10

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 47.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 244.35Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 23.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.8 ±10.5

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 24.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 96.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 8.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7674, 3467, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7674, 3467, 9096

Auto

50.4 16%

Teleop

179.7 58%

Endgame

77.2 25%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 166, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 166, 11269

Auto

29.9 24%

Teleop

59.5 49%

Endgame

33.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score315.6pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186
Score range: 101–345
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.6Season APEX433.8

50.4Auto29.9

179.7Teleop59.5

77.2Endgame33

12Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	37
teleop	166	38
endgame	76	25
foul	10	0
total	305	100

Result

Final score

305 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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