Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.99 – 34.44

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±11

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 8.67Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 34.8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 14.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±12.2

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -15.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 4.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 45.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 509, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11175, 509, 11269

Auto

2.6 5%

Teleop

30.9 60%

Endgame

18.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9055, 8421, 4905

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 8421, 4905

Auto

13.5 46%

Teleop

17.8 60%

Endgame

-1.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58pts

Blue projected score34.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 10–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.6Season APEX409.7

2.6Auto13.5

30.9Teleop17.8

18.4Endgame-1.8

47Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	35	53
endgame	21	22
foul	0	0
total	63	92

Result

Final score

63 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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