Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.37 – 174.05

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237 ±12.7

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 28.34Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -18.99Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 32.02Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±10.8

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX 16.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 122.59Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 34.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 6690, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 6690, 2342

Auto

9.2 23%

Teleop

7.2 18%

Endgame

24.4 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1247, 4909, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1247, 4909, 58

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

98.0 57%

Endgame

48.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.4pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.7
Score range: 16–199
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237Season APEX299.5

9.2Auto25.6

7.2Teleop98

24.4Endgame48.2

59Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	29
teleop	29	63
endgame	15	12
foul	0	0
total	58	104

Result

Final score

58 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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