Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.56 – 146.19

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 121.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.3 ±9.5

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 23.12Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 62.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 210.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.3 ±10.5

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 0.49Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 54.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 90.86Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 126, 131, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 126, 131, 3467

Auto

35.2 12%

Teleop

182.8 64%

Endgame

69.5 24%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 138, 319, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 138, 319, 1073

Auto

28.1 19%

Teleop

75.7 52%

Endgame

41.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.6pts

Blue projected score146.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.4
Score range: 122–321
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.3Season APEX504.3

35.2Auto28.1

182.8Teleop75.7

69.5Endgame41.9

73Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	36
teleop	252	158
endgame	84	69
foul	5	5
total	417	268

Result

Final score

417 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 121.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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