Qualification · Qualification 43
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
135.44 – 116.24
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
124 – 141
Prediction missed · off by 18.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 38.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 3.06Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 93.44Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 39Event APEX -6.61Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 2.13Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 120.72Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 509, 8421, 467
55
/ 100 compatProjected
135.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 509, 8421, 467
Auto
4.8 4%
Teleop
81.7 64%
Endgame
41.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10138, 501, 95
52
/ 100 compatProjected
116.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 10138, 501, 95
Auto
45.5 42%
Teleop
43.1 40%
Endgame
19.8 18%
Strengths
- · 95 anchors offense
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.43
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score135.4pts
Blue projected score116.2pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.2
- Score range
- 92–159
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
303.1Season APEX272.2
4.8Auto45.5
81.7Teleop43.1
41.8Endgame19.8
20Consistency17
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 18 |
| teleop | 87 | 92 |
| endgame | 25 | 31 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 124 | 141 |
Result
Final score
124 – 141
Prediction missed · off by 18.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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