Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.33 – 150.32

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±12.2

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 3.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 29.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 69.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.3 ±11.7

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 84.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 33.42Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 32.2Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11269, 7314, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11269, 7314, 1729

Auto

8.9 9%

Teleop

64.3 64%

Endgame

27.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 166, 811, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 811, 10937

Auto

20.0 13%

Teleop

85.9 58%

Endgame

43.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score150.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48
Score range: 78–174
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX332.3

8.9Auto20

64.3Teleop85.9

27.1Endgame43.1

49Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	22
teleop	103	23
endgame	44	6
foul	5	0
total	152	51

Result

Final score

152 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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