Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.91 – 175.7

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 100.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.2 ±9.9

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 17.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 80.64Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 69.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.2 ±10.4

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 70.77Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 108.12Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX -3.19Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 1073, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 1073, 8724

Auto

31.6 19%

Teleop

92.1 55%

Endgame

42.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 467, 95, 4925

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 467, 95, 4925

Auto

23.8 14%

Teleop

118.7 69%

Endgame

29.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.9pts

Blue projected score175.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 145–199
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.2Season APEX385.2

31.6Auto23.8

92.1Teleop118.7

42.5Endgame29

44Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	42
teleop	126	141
endgame	70	106
foul	0	10
total	245	299

Result

Final score

245 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 100.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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