Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.11 – 143.36

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±11

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 57.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 35.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 73.89Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465 ±11.2

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 62.75Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 1.6Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 79.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4905, 2342, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4905, 2342, 467

Auto

29.0 18%

Teleop

92.4 56%

Endgame

44.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 10138, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 319, 10138, 131

Auto

24.4 18%

Teleop

74.0 54%

Endgame

37.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score143.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 114–196
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX465

29Auto24.4

92.4Teleop74

44.1Endgame37.6

23Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	30
teleop	80	60
endgame	46	44
foul	0	10
total	150	144

Result

Final score

150 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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