Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.16 – 246.75

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.2 ±12.2

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 10.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 3.41Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 42.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.3 ±12

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 27.94Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 204.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX 14.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8421, 11269, 58

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8421, 11269, 58

Auto

12.9 26%

Teleop

33.0 66%

Endgame

3.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10937, 3467, 1247

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 3467, 1247

Auto

34.5 14%

Teleop

150.2 61%

Endgame

59.8 24%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.2pts

Blue projected score246.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.6
Score range: 33–270
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.2Season APEX381.3

12.9Auto34.5

33Teleop150.2

3.8Endgame59.8

26Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	31
teleop	26	195
endgame	17	82
foul	5	0
total	60	308

Result

Final score

60 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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