Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.59 – 41.03

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.9 ±11.2

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 83.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 54.38Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6690MV roboPride

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -24.14Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±12.7

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -9.39Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 22.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 27.93Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 166, 4905, 6690

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 166, 4905, 6690

Auto

37.4 33%

Teleop

52.0 46%

Endgame

23.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9055, 7314, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

41 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 7314, 2342

Auto

-4.2 0%

Teleop

23.6 58%

Endgame

21.0 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score41pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.6
Score range: 18–137
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.9Season APEX257.3

37.4Auto-4.2

52Teleop23.6

23Endgame21

52Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	19
teleop	82	45
endgame	23	37
foul	0	0
total	132	101

Result

Final score

132 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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