Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.11 – 114.82

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±11.6

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 20.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 51.21Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 23.93Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±11.7

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 33.2Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 29.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7674RaiderBots

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 52.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9096, 319, 811

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 319, 811

Auto

22.5 24%

Teleop

35.3 38%

Endgame

35.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 509, 11157, 7674

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 11157, 7674

Auto

2.6 2%

Teleop

72.4 64%

Endgame

37.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.7
Score range: 73–138
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.3Season APEX275.8

22.5Auto2.6

35.3Teleop72.4

35.7Endgame37.7

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	10
teleop	93	77
endgame	43	68
foul	0	0
total	163	155

Result

Final score

163 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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