Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.35 – 121.01

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.6 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 110.76Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX -4.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX -2.74Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±10.5

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 62.42Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 25.05Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 33.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 501, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 501, 11175

Auto

35.1 34%

Teleop

52.1 50%

Endgame

17.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1729, 126, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1729, 126, 348

Auto

13.1 11%

Teleop

80.3 66%

Endgame

27.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.4pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 80–144
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.6Season APEX357.2

35.1Auto13.1

52.1Teleop80.3

17Endgame27.5

81Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	12
teleop	65	89
endgame	40	42
foul	35	0
total	185	143

Result

Final score

185 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 51.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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