Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.98 – 131.29

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405 ±11.7

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 50.5Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX -2.79Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1247Blood, Sweat, and Gears

Season APEX 11Event APEX 13.27Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±11.6

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 102.47Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 7.72Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 21.1Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 11269, 1247

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 11269, 1247

Auto

4.5 8%

Teleop

32.4 58%

Endgame

19.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 95, 9096, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 95, 9096, 2342

Auto

30.3 25%

Teleop

69.6 58%

Endgame

20.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score131.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.3
Score range: 38–154
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405Season APEX312.5

4.5Auto30.3

32.4Teleop69.6

19.4Endgame20.8

83Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	17
teleop	58	123
endgame	44	68
foul	5	0
total	117	208

Result

Final score

117 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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