Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.35 – 16.77

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.4 ±10.8

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 11.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 96.87Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 65.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.9 ±12.7

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 36.99Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX -15.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -4.4Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11157, 4909, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11157, 4909, 467

Auto

33.9 20%

Teleop

97.1 58%

Endgame

37.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10937, 138, 9055

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10937, 138, 9055

Auto

5.6 36%

Teleop

-1.2 0%

Endgame

11.3 72%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.4pts

Blue projected score16.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.6
Score range: -5–196
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.4Season APEX202.9

33.9Auto5.6

97.1Teleop-1.2

37.4Endgame11.3

8Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	5
teleop	164	16
endgame	69	14
foul	0	5
total	263	40

Result

Final score

263 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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