Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.93 – 119.01

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.6 ±9.3

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 18.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 30.5Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 105.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.1 ±10.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 57.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 70.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX -8.89Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 509, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 509, 166

Auto

14.6 10%

Teleop

94.9 62%

Endgame

43.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 467, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 319, 467, 11175

Auto

31.0 27%

Teleop

50.2 43%

Endgame

34.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.9pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 97–176
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.6Season APEX364.1

14.6Auto31

94.9Teleop50.2

43.4Endgame34.8

0Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	119	74
endgame	67	15
foul	0	5
total	201	116

Result

Final score

201 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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