Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.76 – 109.64

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±11.2

11157Winnacunnet

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 18.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4925The Resistance

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX -5.75Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 65.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±11.7

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 20.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 43.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

811Wild Cards

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 45.99Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11157, 4925, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11157, 4925, 8724

Auto

37.3 49%

Teleop

38.0 50%

Endgame

0.7 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8421, 131, 811

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8421, 131, 811

Auto

6.8 7%

Teleop

52.9 51%

Endgame

43.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.9
Score range: 57–132
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.9Season APEX423.9

37.3Auto6.8

38Teleop52.9

0.7Endgame43.2

16Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	0
teleop	42	52
endgame	17	22
foul	15	15
total	90	89

Result

Final score

90 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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