Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.14 – 52.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246 ±11.6

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 58.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 24.44Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX -3.4Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.4 ±10.4

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX -17.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 22.2Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 48.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 58, 1277, 9096

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 1277, 9096

Auto

12.0 17%

Teleop

34.2 50%

Endgame

22.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 509, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 509, 319

Auto

22.7 49%

Teleop

18.5 40%

Endgame

5.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 30–102
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246Season APEX326.4

12Auto22.7

34.2Teleop18.5

22.8Endgame5.1

55Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	15
teleop	38	35
endgame	2	45
foul	5	0
total	55	95

Result

Final score

55 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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