Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.9 – 41.03

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±12.2

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX -2.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 86.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 32.38Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.3 ±11.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 12.18Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX -16.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 45.6Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 138, 1729, 10138

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 138, 1729, 10138

Auto

15.6 13%

Teleop

77.9 63%

Endgame

30.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 11269, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

41 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 11269, 10937

Auto

10.0 26%

Teleop

17.8 46%

Endgame

11.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score41pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.9
Score range: 18–140
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX305.3

15.6Auto10

77.9Teleop17.8

30.9Endgame11.3

124Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	4	22
endgame	3	17
foul	0	10
total	18	62

Result

Final score

18 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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