Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.72 – 149.72

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.9 ±11

58The Riot Crew

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 55.94Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 5.8Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

138Entropy

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 28.98Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±11.2

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 76.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 33.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 39.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 58, 11175, 138

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 58, 11175, 138

Auto

20.9 24%

Teleop

52.5 60%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8724, 7314, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8724, 7314, 3323

Auto

33.5 22%

Teleop

89.6 59%

Endgame

29.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.7pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59
Score range: 62–179
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.9Season APEX428.2

20.9Auto33.5

52.5Teleop89.6

13.9Endgame29.7

33Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	30
teleop	24	112
endgame	4	21
foul	0	0
total	42	163

Result

Final score

42 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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