Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.4 – 165.6

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 99 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±10.5

9055Knights of Katahdin (Ka TAH din)

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX -2.12Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 95.17Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 72.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±12.2

9096Bad Weather

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 73.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10138VikingBot

Season APEX 39Event APEX 68.35Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 23.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9055, 95, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9055, 95, 1073

Auto

12.8 8%

Teleop

102.5 67%

Endgame

37.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9096, 10138, 509

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9096, 10138, 509

Auto

34.7 22%

Teleop

93.2 60%

Endgame

26.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.4pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.2
Score range: 142–189
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX178.7

12.8Auto34.7

102.5Teleop93.2

37.2Endgame26.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	4
teleop	57	13
endgame	23	4
foul	0	0
total	112	21

Result

Final score

112 – 21

Prediction missed · off by 99 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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