Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.41 – 168.93

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 102.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.4 ±11.7

8421CRUSADERS

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 24.65Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 21.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 65.52Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647 ±10.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 43.41Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7314Tornadoes

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 18.63Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 106.89Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8421, 319, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8421, 319, 1729

Auto

9.7 10%

Teleop

63.0 62%

Endgame

29.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4905, 7314, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4905, 7314, 3467

Auto

32.5 20%

Teleop

90.0 55%

Endgame

40.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.4pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.5
Score range: 89–191
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.4Season APEX647

9.7Auto32.5

63Teleop90

29.2Endgame40.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	97	201
endgame	48	82
foul	0	0
total	164	322

Result

Final score

164 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 102.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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