Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.76 – 146

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±11.2

509Red Storm

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 4.06Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 41.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10937River Valley RADs+

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 44.04Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.4 ±10.5

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 48.81Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 52.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 44.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 509, 1073, 10937

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 509, 1073, 10937

Auto

4.6 5%

Teleop

56.5 63%

Endgame

28.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 2342, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 2342, 501

Auto

26.4 19%

Teleop

70.8 50%

Endgame

45.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.8pts

Blue projected score146pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.2
Score range: 68–168
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.5Season APEX445.4

4.6Auto26.4

56.5Teleop70.8

28.7Endgame45.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	103	19
endgame	38	19
foul	15	5
total	169	57

Result

Final score

169 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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